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(2-day)","family":"Mean reversion","unit":"number","digits":1,"rule":"Bullish at 10 or lower (oversold), bearish at 90 or higher (overbought).","source":{"label":"Connors and Alvarez 2009","url":null},"evidence":"From 2005 to 2026, oversold readings were followed by higher 21-session returns (S&P 500 +1.56% against +0.63% in neutral readings, Nasdaq-100 +1.61% against +1.11%).","readings":{"SPX":{"value":8.774017,"reading":"8.8, 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drawdown","family":"Drawdown","unit":"percent","digits":1,"rule":"Bullish 10% or more below the 52-week high (a correction); otherwise neutral.","source":{"label":"Li and Yu 2012","url":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X11002121"},"evidence":"From 2005 to 2026, after a 10% drop the next 21 sessions returned a little more (S&P 500 +0.84% against +0.70%, Nasdaq-100 +1.31% against +1.10%) and were about twice as volatile; the return gap was small.","readings":{"SPX":{"value":-0.030549,"reading":"3.1% below the 52-week 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volatility (VIX, VXN, VXSMH)","family":"Sentiment","unit":"number","digits":1,"rule":"The VIX for the S&P 500, the VXN for the Nasdaq-100, the semiconductor ETF's VXSMH for SOX: bullish at fear levels (VIX 30, VXN 33, VXSMH 59 or higher), bearish when calm (VIX 15, VXN 18, VXSMH 32 or lower).","source":{"label":"Giot 2005","url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=371461"},"evidence":"From 2005 to 2026, fear was followed by the best 21-session returns (S&P 500 +1.40% against +0.52% when calm, Nasdaq-100 +2.48% against +0.75%), with high volatility.","readings":{"SPX":{"value":19.42,"reading":"VIX 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risk premium","family":"Risk premium","unit":"number","digits":0,"rule":"The index's implied variance minus the past month's realized variance, in squared points: bullish at 200 or higher, bearish at 0 or lower.","source":{"label":"Bollerslev, Tauchen and Zhou 2009","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200711/200711pap.pdf"},"evidence":"From 2005 to 2026, a high premium was followed by higher 21-session returns (S&P 500 +1.69% against +0.69% when negative, Nasdaq-100 +1.79% against +1.06%).","readings":{"SPX":{"value":243.008209,"reading":"Implied 19.4% vs realized 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curve (10-year − 3-month)","family":"Macro","unit":"number","digits":2,"rule":"10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield: bullish at 0.75 points or more, bearish at 0 or below (inverted).","source":{"label":"Estrella and Mishkin 1998","url":"https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9609.html"},"evidence":"Its record is on recessions about a year ahead. 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Sequential 9 (daily)","family":"Exhaustion","unit":"number","digits":0,"rule":"Closes in a row below (buy setup, counted negative) or above (sell setup) the close 4 sessions earlier: bullish at a buy 9 or longer, bearish at a sell 9 or longer.","source":{"label":"DeMark 1994","url":null},"evidence":"From 2005 to 2026, a buy 9 was followed by higher 21-session returns (S&P 500 +2.71% against +0.66% in neutral readings, Nasdaq-100 +2.44% against +1.12%), with higher volatility; a sell 9 showed no consistent edge.","readings":{"SPX":{"value":-1,"reading":"Buy setup 1 of 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Sequential 9 (weekly)","family":"Exhaustion","unit":"number","digits":0,"rule":"The same count on weekly closes against the close 4 weeks earlier, this week at its latest close: bullish at a buy 9 or longer, bearish at a sell 9 or longer.","source":{"label":"DeMark 1994","url":null},"evidence":"From 2005 to 2026, a weekly buy 9 was followed by higher 21-session returns (S&P 500 +5.53% against +0.71% in neutral readings, Nasdaq-100 +4.15% against +1.13%), but over only 15 S&P 500 and 16 Nasdaq-100 episodes; a sell 9 showed no consistent edge.","readings":{"SPX":{"value":-2,"reading":"Buy setup 2 of 9 this 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